The fight everyone is talking about
As I sit down to write this, Adesanya vs Romero is only a few hours away. However, the fight that everyone is talking about is Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson. People seem to think that it’s going to be a close fight – but not me.
The video shows Khabib wrestling with the #1 high school wrestler in the States. In short, it means this kid is one damn good wrestler. One particular aspect to note in the video is Khabib’s defence and balance, he makes it look easy. Then at 2.56 there is a transition and that is where Khabib really starts to dominate. However, I will say this, I am not sure Khabib would be fast enough to get him down in an open mat situation (no walls). What this video did for me (apart from increase my man crush on Khabib) is confirm why I think Khabib will win against Ferguson and make it look easy. From my view,Ferguson gets in there and scraps – he’s tough as nails and will not back down. He takes damage then picks up a submission during a transition; they are very slick and he it does it very well. He needs the fight to get ‘messy’ to get the victory.
He’s not one to get a position and methodically work the position to get the submission, he needs the chaos. Khabib is quite different. Everyone knows what the guy is going to do, work the stand up put on the pressure with his distance. The pressure comes from two areas. One is that he is always coming forward, putting pressure, giving little or no space for his opponent to think, strike effectively and see the takedown. The second factor isthe fact that all his opponents know he is going for the takedown. This makes them constantly on edge for the shot, which makes Khabib’s striking more effective, which in turn makes his takedowns more effective. Once he gets his opponent down, it is relentless pressure that eventually breaks them, his dominance in the transition is one of the big keys to his success. Khabib’s opponents try to get to their feet but Khabib’s game is centred around keeping them down, a strategy he is very good at employing. He uses the wrestling term ‘riding’ which is when your opponent is on all fours and you are on their back controlling their position. In wrestling, you get points for the control and when you have someone riding you, it is one of the most energy-zapping things in MMA. Khabib also manages to keep a very dominant position on the ground while staying active. Most people that keep very tight control get stood up as there is not enough action. Khabib continues to unleash very effective ground-and-pound which keeps the fight from being stood up. Khabib uses very effective hand and wrist control to take away his opponent’s defence and make his ground strikes more effective.
Based on the fact that Ferguson needs the chaos to get the win and Khabib shuts that possibility down, I can only see the fight going one way. Ferguson will put up a fight and there will be some interesting striking exchanges for the first few rounds. Once Khabib gets that fight to the ground Ferguson will be zapped of energy. I am not saying Ferguson is unfit or isn’t durable, but I'll try and make sense of the difference between energy and fitness. Think of this; run for 1000m as fast as you can is fitness. At the end you are huffing and puffing, and your lungs are burning. Then do that same run on sand and that is energy, it takes such an effort to keep those legs moving that part way through you are thinking of quitting, it becomes an effort just to keep going. It is not a fitness thing anymore; it is more about willing your body to continue. Now against Khabib, you are running in sand, then you think you are out only to get dragged back in over and over. That is just one round, then you end up taken down at the start of the round and you are running in sand again and sooner or later, it mentally wears you down and you find it hard to move. Fighting against Ferguson is doing a 1000m on a track and there are sprints here and there and he tries to win with that last sprint over the line. To me these are miles apart and no one wants to run in the sand.
The fight will go 4 – 5 rounds and Khabib will just wear Ferguson down. Ferguson is trying to get into Khabib’s head, which is not going to work. But it is great to have a fight that has got people talking.
Gareth Lewis
Head MMA Instructor