I know what you are going to do

Recently, Khabib Nurmagomedov made his second title defence, and people asked me what I thought was going to happen. The way I saw the fight, I called a third-round submission. However, this was not a prediction, this is just what Khabib does to all of his opponents.

Khabib is one of the very few fighters that you know exactly what they will do. Yet, there is nothing you can do about it. To me, this is like Tyson in his prime, Anderson Silva in his heyday and Ronda Rousey’s formidable armbars. The comparison is based on this: all you had to do to beat Mike Tyson was to keep him away with your jab – since he always fought taller opponents, this is the obvious game plan. There was one problem and that was Tyson’s head movement, timing and power which made it almost impossible to keep him away. Even though I was never a fan of Anderson Silva, the guy would more or less fight the same and no one could really do much about it. Silva would stand at range and bait you to attack and then pick you off with pin-point accurate counters. People clicked on to this and would not attack, then he’d respond by taking the baiting to another level and lean against the cage, let people hit him, keep his hands down and so on. Silva did whatever he had to do to get his opponent to strike so he could counter. Rousey’s approach was relatively simple, she would just take people down and armbar them. During her dominance, she was far ahead of the game and she would armbar almost everyone in the first round. Again, in Rousey’s context, everyone knew what she was going to do but couldn’t stop it. It must be said that with all these examples are based on those fighters in their prime, and like everyone, time catches up, the sport evolves, new and dangerous challenges arise and inevitably, things change.

To me, Khabib is a different beast. He does things that I have been doing for years but that is where the similarities end. Think of it like this – I can pass a rugby ball, but the All Blacks CAN pass a rugby ball. Even though I do the same system as Khabib, he is doing it against the elite of the elite and making it look easy. So, what does he do that makes him so dominant? 

Khabib shuts down the distance through pressure until he gets close enough for the takedown. Then with the takedowns he does what I think it very smart, he doesn’t go for the big take downs that take a lot of energy, rather he uses trip and pressure to get them down. Then, once he has opponent down, he uses a very simple system that I call the table. Think of a table with four legs – an opponent has the same geometric system while on all fours. Khabib controls one corner (an arm) then puts all his weight on that corner. Visualise this; you cut one leg off your table and it will still stand. But, if you push that table from the opposite side in the middle, it will wobble but not fall over. This is because one of legs can still support the weight. Now if you have cut the top right leg off the table and push towards that corner from the bottom left, then that table is tipping over. 

So, let’s put this scenario into practice. You’re on all fours, and Khabib is on your back. He controls an arm and the punches start, so now you have to make a decision – do you keep your balance or stop the punches – what would you do? To stop the punches, you have to change position, but the sacrifice is ending up on on your side. This changes position, but you’re still getting hit. So, now you have to decide between blocking the punches or changing your position again. You can see a pattern emerging here; everywhere you go, you either have to move or get hit. This is one of the most tiring things there is, and it wears you down mentally and physically. This is what Khabib does against his opponents so well – he just wears them down and takes their belief then gets the win.

In his most recent fight with Dustin Poirier, who hear Poirier in between rounds say, “I can’t get the F$%^#@ guy off me”. Poirier knew what he was in for and trained against top people for that exact scenario and it was like he had no idea about what he should do. That is the level that Khabib brings to the fight. He also doesn’t trash talk; he just tells like it is and that must be worse. He says things like “he isn’t strong enough; I will take his strength and then finish him”. In the post-fight press conference, Khabib was asked about the guillotine choke that he was in. Khabib said he was never in danger and even gave it to him again as he knew his arm would be fatigued from the first attempt. Honestly, who does that? I have never heard anyone say anything like that before. There is no comeback for that type of comment, he just takes your belief and squashes it. His opponent said it will take him years to get over that fight “I don’t fight just to fight; I fight to be the best”. Think about that, Poirier has been in there with the best, seeks out the best and wants to fight the best in the future. Then he goes against Khabib and it is like a pro vs an amateur, it must be so demoralising. To think of your self as one of the best fighters in the world and then get rag-dolled like that. You can see why he was so devasted with the loss.

Khabib has taken MMA to another level and the scary thing is, he is not doing it through some crazy new technique or style. This style has been around for years, it’s just that he does it better than anyone else has done before. Watching Khabib’s fights is just a clinic on how to do MMA, it is as close to perfection as you will see in the world of MMA right now. Every one of his opponents knows exactly what he will do and no one has found a way to stop it – that is what the greats do. 

Gareth Lewis
Head MMA Instructor