Khabib vs Tony

Early in 2020, if all goes according to plan, we will finally see Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson. Many people are expecting a close fight – not me. I’m going to base this on mutual opponents. Both have fought 4 of the same fighters in the UFC and I am using that as the predictor for the outcome of the fight.

Let me be clear from the outset. I have a reasonable bias toward Khabib as I view him as the most dominant fighter in MMA. He has lost one round in the UFC and has more or less dominated everyone using the same system. Ferguson has had great success in the cage but has struggled more to get there. He will take punishment but still manages to get the win – he is a tough as they come.

So, let’s look at the common opponents and observe their performances:

Edson Barboza:
Khabib employed a great strategy against Barboza. Barboza is one of the best strikers in the UFC, often using kicks to devastating effect. Khabib walked him down, secured the takedown and would control the round. With devastating ground and pound, Khabib won via decision. Since Tony’s fight against Barboza was primarily on the feet, Tony struggled a bit more. Both landed good shots, both were cut, and both got hurt. Tony weathered a ferocious kicking attack from Barboza but managed to lock up a very nice brabo in a transition to get the win via submission.

Rafael dos Anjos:
Khabib: Even though dos Anjos is a great grappler (3rd Degree BJJ Black Belt), Khabib did his thing. He used pressure to close the distance, got the takedown and controlled the fight from top position. Watching the fight, you wouldn’t think dos Anjos was a top grappler given the level of domination on the ground. Khabib won via decision.

Tony: Lots of stand up and trading shots in this fight. It started of more or less even with dos Anjos likely winning the first round. As the fight progressed however, Tony started to get the upper hand. There were some ground exchanges, but they mostly cancelled each other out. As Tony was better on the feet, he got the win via decision.

Michael Johnson:
Khabib: In this scenario, Khabib is up against another dangerous striker and he makes it look easy. Khabib did take a good shot early in the fight but it didn’t seem to affect him much. Then it was the usual formula – takedown, control and punishment. Khabib continued until he got the submission victory – very one sided.

Tony: This was a loss, Tony got knocked down a couple of times by Johnson and was more or less out classed on the feet. This was a one-sided victory for Johnson.

Abel Trujillo:
Khabib: This is one of the most dominant performances in UFC history. Khabib set a record for landing 21 takedowns in the fight. Khabib rag dolled Trujillo and put on an absolute wrestling clinic – win via decision.

Tony: This was a struggle as Tony got knocked down with strikes then taken down. Tony also took quite a few shots on the feet. Then Tony did what Tony does and got a beautiful rear naked choke from a transition – winning by submission.

Gleison Tibau:
Khabib: This is where the script changes a bit. Khabib struggled in this fight and was taken down a couple of times – each time getting back to his feet. He still won via decision but was one of his closest fights and was not easy.

Tony: He dominated this fight and got the submission victory. It was very impressive win for Tony.

Over the four opponents, Khabib has mostly dominated every round and was never really in trouble. Tony on the other hand, had mixed success. He did well and came away with victories but had a lot more trouble getting there.
The prediction: Khabib will do his usual trick of closing the distance and getting the takedown. The usual Khabib gameplan from there is to get and maintain top position while dishing out some vicious ground and pound; annoyingly tying up his opponent’s legs and getting them tired. Tony will try to keep the fight on the feet as he has a chance of winning the fight there as he is the better striker. However, what makes Khabib’s striking good is the concern of his takedown. You know it’s coming so due to that concern; your striking becomes apprehensive and thus, compromised. Generally speaking, you don’t see people getting back up when Khabib takes them down. Even elite level grapplers look like they have never grappled in their life when he is in top position. Tony though, has a very slick submission game and usually picks up the sub in transitions. This will be tricky against Khabib as he seems to have the upper hand in both position and transitions against all his previous opponents. It must be said that if anyone can pick up a submission against Khabib, it would be Tony. His submissions can come out of anywhere and gets them in the middle of wild
transitions. Still, Khabib wins this fight and he will do it without too much trouble. First two rounds may be close but Khabib will wear down Tony, reduce his strength as the fight goes and dominate the final rounds.

Gareth Lewis
Head MMA Instructor