Adesanya v Costa
The end of September will see the return of Israel Adesanya to the UFC octagon. He is set to defend his middleweight belt against Paulo Costa. Some are saying this is the most dangerous opponent that he has faced.
Paulo Costa is undefeated with a physique that looks like it’s been carved out of stone. As far as middleweights go, Costa looks massive! At this division, Costa seems like he’s been able to overpower many of his opponents. With just 13 fights, he has 11 knockouts, 1 submission and 1 decision. On the face of it, he looks like a very dangerous opponent. Adesanya and Costa have an opponent in common, and that is Yoel Romero. It was a tough fight,but Costa won a very close decision.
Adesanya has had 19 fights with 14 knockouts and 5 wins via decision. Looking at the numbers does not really help us in this fight as the only top fighter Costa has fought has been Romero, and to reiterate, that was close fight. Adesanya on the other hand has beaten the legend Anderson Silva and Robert Whitaker (who were both middleweight champions) as well as Romero. Sincethey’ve both faced Romero, it can give a little insight in to how they will go against each other. Costa’s straight-ahead style put a lot of pressure on Romero, but this also gave Romero the opportunity to drop him. Costa, however, showed a lot of grit to stay in the fight. Adesanya had one of the most boring fights against Romero, he kept his distance and would counter when Romero threw a shot, however they were few and far between. So, that doesn’t tell us much.
When you look at Costa’s wins there is one thing that stands out and that is that his knockouts come when the opponents are standing still. They either have their back against the cage or their feet stuck in concrete in the middle of the cage. Regardless, this is what happens in a nutshell: Costa goes forward throwing big punches and kicks and wears down his opponent. Sooner or later, they lose heart and/or energy and start standing still in front of Costa with their hands up. This is the beginning of the end, as the power shots now have the most effect – the opponent drops, and Costa gets the finish. Adesanya on the other hand is a pin-point technician. He throws perfect counter shots that find a home more often than not. Adesanya needs his opponent to attack to make a fight and once he has an opponent hurt, he is a very good finisher. So, from the outside, fight looks like a blueprint for an Adesanya victory. Costa comes forward, throws big shots, and relies on power. This will allow Adesanya to keep range and just pick him off.
To get a little more detailed: As I mentioned, Costa gets his KO’s when his opponent stands right in front of him which makes it easy to land the big shots. Costa does not knock people out with timing, counter shots or by setting up a combo. To put it simply, it is a very basic type of striking. Just straight ahead throwing big power shots. Adesanya on the other hand is one of the best strikers that MMA has seen. With knockouts from counters, pin-point accuracy and setting up shots using footwork and angles. This is what will cause Costa problems. Adesanya will use footwork and timing to stay out of trouble. Costa will not be able to pin Adesanya against the fence. Costa’s basic style will be found wanting against the higher striking IQ of Adesanya.
There is always the chance of a one punch knockout that Costa can land and that is a real threat for Adesanya. However, 9 times out of 10 Adesanya wins this fight. There has been talk of the powerful physique vs the skinny body. As in having bigger muscles means you are a better fighter. When you look at Andersson Silva, who is rather skinny with a bit of a belly and he is regarded as one of the greatest in history. Silva took out fighters who looked more athletic, younger, stronger, you name it. Silva had better technique and a higher fight IQ and this is what Adesanya has. Costa is a physical phenom and will go in with massive confidence but once he gets picked off then Costa will get wild. This will only make things worse, which will make Costa go into his shell and he will back up then you will see him looking for the hail Mary punches. Then sooner or later his spirit will break and he will drop.
Gareth Lewis
Head MMA Instructor